Overview

A full-ETYS nodal model of the GB electricity transmission system — ~2,130 buses, ~1,656 circuits, 1,481 transformers, 7,739 generators — that quantifies how much wind generation is curtailed by network constraints. Every BM-registered wind farm is sited at its authoritative ETYS connection node, and NESO's thermal boundary transfer limits (SCOTEX, SSE-SP, SSHARN, ESTEX, SEIMP) are enforced on a per–settlement-period basis. The model is built and solved natively in Convexity as a full-year (2024, 3-hourly) DC optimal power flow.

Methodology

Wind availability is reconstructed as metered output (ELEXON B1610) + NESO SO bid-offer acceptances (BOA) — the counterfactual unconstrained output. Thermal marginal costs use an ELEXON-calibrated revealed-preference fit (MC ≈ α + β·gas); must-run bioenergy is held at its observed annual capacity factor rather than priced. Network curtailment is then read off directly as available minus dispatched wind at each node.

Validation (2024)

Curtailment vs NESO BOA: the model curtails 7.2 TWh of wind, matching NESO's own Wind BOA constraint total (7.3 TWh) — the SO-instructed network-curtailment measure this product targets — with daily national correlation r = 0.90.
Energy balance: total supply closes against demand to < 0.01% of load, with negligible unmet-load slack.

Data

PyPSA-GB (upstream network build), NESO ETYS network + boundary limits, ELEXON BMRS (B1610 metered / BOD), NESO Wind BOA Volumes, DUKES, Earthmover reanalysis cutout.

Downloads

GB Curtailment 2024 — a pre-solved Convexity .db (the full nodal model; opens with the solution, per-bus prices and per-farm curtailment). Licence-gated.